Wednesday, January 19, 2022

History Check

Sometimes, even in the midst of a crisis (like the current viral pandemic) it's wise to take a deep breath and step back for a big-picture view. Here are some colors with which to paint the landscape in which we presently find ourselves:

Duration (so far) of Covid-19 pandemic: 2 years, 1 month (began Dec 2019)

Duration of H1N1 flu pandemic (misnamed "Spanish flu"): 2 years, 1 month (Mar 1918-Apr 1920)

Death toll (so far) of Covid-19 pandemic: 5,582,136

Death toll of H1N1 flu 1918-20: approximately 50,000,000

Percentage (so far) of Covid-19 cases proving lethal: 1.64%

Percentage of H1N1 flu cases proving lethal: approximately 10%

Time to identify structure of Covid-19: 3 months

Time to identify structure of H1N1 flu: 21 years (1940)


Biological processes are complex and unpredictable. And any comparison between cases like viral pandemics comes with a large number of caveats and asterisks. But looking with broad brush-strokes (as we must), it seems to me that the current pandemic need not be viewed as apocalyptic. In fact, the advances in science and medicine over the last 100 years seem to have put us in relatively good stead against this contagion. We must not, of course, diminish the pain and suffering caused by any pandemic; but we must also keep our experience in a greater context and, whenever possible, cultivate gratitude for the gap between what might have been and what is.


References:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20deaths%20was,occurring%20in%20the%20United%20States.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/novel-coronavirus-structure-reveals-targets-vaccines-treatments

~ emrys

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