Playing the Odds

 Well, I finally lost the Covid-19 lottery this week. After avoiding exposure for two and a half years, getting both doses of the Pfizer vaccine, and getting a Pfizer booster shot, I tested positive this morning. I have had cold-like symptoms for a long time--so long, in fact, that I have tested negative for Covid-19 twice in the past two months. A change in symptoms (fever) led me to get tested again this morning.

I am reminded again that health, health care, and right now especially vaccinations are not a matter of achieving certainty. When we worked in the camping industry, in which we invited youth to participate in physical activities that involved some level (or multiple levels) or risk, we reminded ourselves that nothing in the world is "safe." While we put every reasonable safety measure in place, we could never call an activity "safe," either semantically or legally. Even if we put kids in bubbles and told them to read all week, there would be a risk of asphyxiation.

I remember getting mono(nucleosis) when I was younger. And then I remember getting it again. It was supposedly impossible to get it a second time. But wait--actually what's been determined is that it is extremely unlikely that one can get mono twice. Unlikely, but possible. Having had mono once doesn't make one safe from the disease. It's still a crap-shoot.

I have colleagues who cast aspersions on the medical field--and even more so on government entities like the CDC and NIH--because we now see a good number of vaccinated people being hospitalized with Covid-19. They say, "You see? Vaccinations don't work!" The statement rests on the assumption, gleefully assumed, that vaccinations claim perfect safety from infection. They don't, of course. They significantly reduce the odds of infection and, if infection occurs, reduce the odds of severe symptoms. These colleagues of mine don't ask the question, "How high would the rate of hospitalization be if this many people were not vaccinated?"

So, yes, as in many other realms of life we who are vaccinated are playing the odds. That's a double-edged game. It's very disappointing to contract a disease that one has been vaccinated against. But I'd still recommend vaccination to anyone. I would have to, if I'm being reasonable about the numbers. I prefer not to be a betting man, but if forced into it I will bet where the probabilities dictate.

By the way, my symptoms are very mild. I am blessed by the hard work of scientists and medical professionals and the folks in charge of government allocations for their work. Though I have contracted "the bug," I will probably suffer much less than I might.

~ emrys